Did Punxsutawney Phil See Shadow on Groundhog Day?

It’s déjà vu all over again. On February 2, a groundhog (Marmota monax, if you please) named Phil will poke his head out of his burrow in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, and look around, as he has for the past 128 years.

February 2 is Groundhog Day. If Phil sees his shadow—so they say—brace yourself for six more weeks of winter.

Is Phil—or any groundhog, for that matter—really acting as the Oracle of Spring when he pops out of his hole? Not quite, it turns out.

Many male groundhogs do come out of their burrow on Groundhog Day, but not to see their shadow, said Stam Zervanos, emeritus professor of biology at Penn State Berks, in Reading.

“At this time of year, males emerge from their burrows to start searching for the females,” he explained. “The females come out probably seven days later and stay just outside of their burrow or maybe just inside their burrow.” After the males determine where the females are, both sexes “go back to their winter burrows and spend a little more time in hibernation.

“In March, they all emerge together, and that’s when mating occurs,” he said. “The males know exactly where the females are, [so] mating can occur very rapidly.”

Where did the idea of the groundhog as winter weatherman originate?

It’s European in origin, says Zervanos. Groundhog Day is related to Candlemas, a mid-winter Germanic holiday that had a hedgehog as its weather forecaster. When German-speaking immigrants came to Pennsylvania, the tradition came with them.

These immigrants, the Pennsylvania Dutch, may have picked groundhogs as their new holiday mascot because they saw them emerge around Candlemas. But there was also a more practical reason to find a new representative from the animal kingdom.

“We don’t have hedgehogs in Punxsutawney,” said Katie Donald, executive director of the Groundhog Club, which celebrates its 129th Groundhog Day this year.

The mission of the club, which holds a Groundhog Ball and sells memorabilia like towels emblazoned with the words “6 more weeks of winter,” is to protect and perpetuate the legend of Punxsutawney Phil. “The only true weather forecasting groundhog,” the club’s website says of its favorite native son. “The others are imposters.”